What is weighted pipeline?
How is weighted pipeline calculated?
Weighted pipeline multiplies each open deal by its probability of closing and adds the results. Take three open deals: one worth 10,000 at a stage with a 20 percent close probability, one worth 5,000 at 60 percent, and one worth 4,000 at 90 percent. The weighted values are 2,000, 3,000, and 3,600, for a weighted pipeline of 8,600. The raw pipeline total is 19,000, so the weighting cuts the headline number down to something closer to what the team can realistically expect to close.
Where do the probabilities come from?
Most often from the sales stage. Each stage is given a close probability that rises as a deal advances, from a low percentage at first contact to a high one at final negotiation, and every deal takes the percentage of its current stage. Teams that want sharper forecasts replace these flat assumptions with historical win rates, weighting deals by how similar opportunities have actually closed rather than by a single agreed number per stage.
How is it different from total pipeline?
Total pipeline sums the full value of every open deal and answers whether you have enough coverage to hit a target. Weighted pipeline discounts each deal by its odds and answers what you are likely to actually book. The two work together: a healthy total pipeline gives room for deals to slip, while the weighted figure keeps the forecast grounded. Neither is a recurring metric like annual recurring revenue, since pipeline covers deals still in flight rather than revenue already contracted.
Reading weighted pipeline from an export
Weighted pipeline is usually built from a CRM export of open deals, a CSV from a tool like HubSpot or Salesforce, listing each deal's value and stage. Rather than build a weighted sum by hand, you can open the file and ask for the forecast in plain English, applying a probability to each stage. Paperswift runs the calculation in your browser, and only your column names and their types are sent when you ask, never the values in your rows.
Frequently asked questions
How is weighted pipeline calculated?+
Multiply each open deal's value by its probability of closing, then sum those weighted amounts across the pipeline. Probability usually comes from the deal's stage, where later stages carry higher percentages. The total is a single forecast figure that sits below the raw pipeline value but above what any single stage alone would suggest you will close.
What is the difference between weighted pipeline and total pipeline?+
Total pipeline adds up the full value of every open deal, treating a first-call opportunity the same as one about to sign. Weighted pipeline discounts each deal by its chance of closing, so it lands lower but closer to reality. Teams watch total pipeline for coverage and weighted pipeline for a grounded revenue forecast.
Where do the probabilities come from?+
Most commonly from the sales stage. Each stage in the pipeline is assigned a close probability, rising as a deal advances, and every deal inherits the percentage for its current stage. More advanced teams refine these with historical win rates by stage, deal size, or segment, so the weights reflect how deals have actually closed rather than a flat assumption.
Why does my weighted forecast differ from what closes?+
Weighted pipeline is an average across many deals, not a promise about any one. Individual deals close or slip, and stage probabilities are rough. Over enough deals the weighting tends to be reasonable, but a few large opportunities can swing a single period. Reviewing weights against your real win rates keeps the forecast honest over time.
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Start free todayLast updated · by Stefan